It was a shock electoral result to the country. No-one expected that a newcomer to politics from a party that didn’t exist at the start of the month could successfully win an electorate. But ElectrumNS won the seat of Wairarapa by a thin margin of 1,800. How did she do it?
It begins with the Greens. Stalin1953 first won the seat against the then Liberal candidate Kingethan15 by around 15,000 votes and 14% of the vote. He was expected to be preselected again and return to parliament. However, after shocking allegations came forward to the Green executive, AnswerMeNow1 formally announced his suspension from the party. Despite Labour initially agreeing not to take him, they re-eneged, and it’s likely Stalin1953 may be back in the upcoming election- more on that later.
The Greens nominated Trevism for the seat, a former cabinet minister and MP, however, he proved to be a bad candidate, barely campaigning. 3 other candidates from National, New Zealand First and The Opportunities Party also barely campaigned, expecting the seat to be a safe Green seat. But ElectrumNS- she did. And her message resonated with the electorate, in the face of what appeared to be neglect from the other candidates. She won. Her majority even expanded after a recount.
But can she do it again? After the resignation of Kingethan15 from parliament, she was thrust into the position of party leader. She will be fiercely defending her seat, as it may well be the only way United Future may re-enter parliament (despite a strong campaign in the Waikato by-election, which arguably cost the Green co-leader a seat). Despite her campaign having the benefit of increasing the United Future party vote in Wairarapa to about 50% of her personal vote.
There are two scenarios for ElectrumNS, both of which have startling consequences for United Future. The first is that her support is her support. People voted for her because she was charismatic, and cared for the electorate, she has a strong personal support base. Or, they voted for her because she was the only one trying. Both have an element of plausibility. If the first occurs, it’s likely she would be re-elected, but that when she’s done, United Future’s time is up, unless they can find a similarly charismatic candidate. But if the second one is true, she relies on the goodwill of other parties not campaigning to re-elect her. And that may well work. United Future could (and is) be a valuable ally for both sides of the political aisle. But the Greens may be unwilling to endorse her if they see her aligning with National, and vice versa. She may face a tough challenge, because in many ways, United Future was not supposed to survive this long. It was percieved by many as simply a political vehicle for Kingethan15, and it was expected to live and die with him. But ElectrumNS now steadfastly leads the waka that is United Future.
The question is, how long is it until the waka sinks?
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