Wairarapa
Wairarapa is one of the closest races of the election. Greens candidate /u/Stalin1953 is currently leading on 39% of the vote, but just behind him is /u/Kingethan15 of the Liberals, on 37%. The unknown factor of this race is Reform's /u/Innovative_Orangutan, better known by constituents as Innovo, polling on a formidable 18%. All 3 are fielding a strong campaign, and Wairarapa could really go either way.
Whanganui
Reform leader /u/alpine- is standing here and seems to be running the polls, on 39%. But she has to get past /u/PineappleCrusher_ of National and /u/hk-laichar of the Greens, both of whom are campaigning quite well in the electorate. In conclusion, it's likely that the Reform leader will hold onto her electorate, but it could go to either candidate.
Aoraki
The only other electorate with a Reform candidate in the lead, Reform has the advantage of having a dedicated campaigner in Winston_Wilhelmus, on 34%. But only 4 points behind is the Liberal /u/goofgy, who will most likely field a strong campaign as well- he's been debating in parliament, one of few non MPs to do so.
Te Pōti Māori
Te Pōti Māori is the great unknown of the election. On the face of it, it appears simple- Greens candidate and co-leader (and in the interest of full disclosure, the author of this article) /u/AnswerMeNow1 holds a strong 12-point lead against incumbent National leader /u/Ninjjadragon- plus, this is one of few 2 way races. But overnight, Reform announced they would no longer endorse AnswerMeNow1, instead endorsing Ninjjadragon. They also have substantial influence in the electorate, which may well swing it. Both candidates have been fighting hard, with AnswerMeNow1 announcing a bus tour across New Zealand and Ninjjadragon posters popping up across New Zealand. Which will Te Pōti Māori go? Do you have a coin on hand?
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