Today, campaigning begun in the two New Zealand electorates of Northland and Whanganui. 6 candidates are running for each electorate, and each could be crucial.
First to Northland. The government has refused to endorse Reform’s candidate, RubenTWO, instead running Kingethan15, candidate for Wairarapa and Liberal deputy leader. He currently leads on 33.5% in the polls. Behind him is Timewalker102- the incumbent MP and Deputy Leader of the Opportunities Party. Polls show his defection may have caused him to lose trust from his electorate, as he’s polling at a meagre 24.5%. Despite some thoughts of former Governor-General trippytropicana running for election with Socialist endorsement, WillShakespeare99 is running as the Official Opposition candidate. He stood for Northland following Red Saturday in the fourth general election. However, he’s only on 19.5%. Handpicked by Winston_Wilhelmus, Reform’s candidate is one RubenTWO- and unlike the others, he’s a rather unknown person. He’s on 14.5% in the polls. The other two are TheOWOTriangle, who is on 5.7% and running an openly anti-gay marriage campaign, and self-anointed ‘MANA Movement’ candidate mana_motuhake on 2.3%. In Whanganui, it appears that much of Reform’s worry- that their success was alpine-‘s personal success- has vanished. Reform’s deputy leader and incumbent list MP, dyljam, is running, and is on 36.8%. His closest opponent is the Official Opposition candidate, hk-laichar of the Greens, a faraway 21.1%. PineappleCrusher_, who stood here for National last election, is running again, as a government candidate. Unlike in Northland, he’s not doing well and remains on 20.1%. Just behind him is Opportunities Party leader, former UN ambassador and Newsroom columnist, silicon_based_life, on 19.3%. There’s also JacolManuki of the Conservatives, on 2.4%, and the unknown TheGreatSenator, on 0.3%. What could be the effects of these? If the two ‘government’ candidates win, the Liberal and National parties can govern on their own. If the official opposition candidates win, the government has a very slender majority of 1 seat. What do we think we will happen? Judging by his polling lead and campaigning, Kingethan15 could edge out in Northland. But hk-laichar’s dedication in Whanganui could make it a close race. In the end, we’ll have to wait and see.
Comentarios