Today, the first polling in New Zealand was released following the annoucnement of the election date, showing a bombshell result where the government had seemingly lost its majority. The Liberal, National and Reform parties were on a combined 44.5%, to the opposition’s 43.2%, with the centrist Opportunities Party being required to form either a 12 seat right-wing government led by Fresh3001, or an 11 seat left-wing government led by imnofox.
These Polls Confirm What Many Politicians Had Been Thinking
In the leadup to the election, many hypothesised that National would fall. Between the second and third general elections, leaders of the party rapidly retired as polling dropped below 10%. However, when the party won the Te Pōti Māori by-election, Ninjjadragon became leader, and revitalised the party to become a powerful bloc of 4 seats in the New Zealand parliament. However, in the fourth general election, he lost Te Pōti Māori to the Greens co-leader (and this article’s author) /u/AnswerMeNow1. He resigned as leader, handing over to his deputy, ToastinRussian. ToastinRussian simply didn’t have the same level of charisma as his predecessor, and the party began flailing in the polls.
Reform Also Begun Dropping
/u/Winston_Wilhelmus’ Reform has seen a drop in support, and it’s clear why. Under /u/alpine-, the party represented a clean, smooth brand of centrism, with a bright pink logo, promising to work with both sides to make a better New Zealand. But Wilhelmus’ rhetoric towards the left, calling the Greens ‘communist’, ‘loony’ and ‘greasy’, among other things, combined with a right-wing shift, adopting a dark-blue logo, meant that many thought the party was bound to lose support. Even if this hadn’t happened, its predecessor (New Zealand First) found itself dramatically worse it had entered a coalition, and it spells one of the truths of New Zealand politics- if you’re a party that says you’ll go both ways, you’ll piss half your voters off when you inevitably make a choice. New Zealand First, for all its governmental achievements, did best in opposition.
The Liberal-National Merger May Have Been Coming
Following the release of the polls, the Liberal Party of New Zealand merged into the National Party, with Prime Minister Fresh3001 becoming National leader. Essentially, the Liberals have rebranded to National. But this may have been a matter of time. National’s numbers were the numbers of an embattled Labour days before the beginning of campaigning. It was only that with the campaigning of /u/TheKirrix was the party saved from going under. Could /u/ToastinRussian have played a similar role? It’s likely the Greens (or Socialist Aotearoa) will have selected a stronger candidate for National in Christchurch, to wipe out the party once and for all. However, the National Party is now left with having to sustain its poll numbers- despite having 9 MPs in parliament, it would have only 7 in the recent polls, equalling the Greens. In order for the current coalition to be maintained, Reform would have to go up to its fourth election numbers, which, for reasons mentioned above, would be quite difficult, or the National Party would have to rise to 8 seats.
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